The "Millennium cold" does not depend on the spectrum

The "Millennium cold" does not depend on the spectrum

Colombia University, International Institute for climate and society (IRI) seasonal climate forecasts show temperatures this winter in the North may even slightly higher than average.

Recently on China this year there will be a "Millennium coldest winter" lot very fire, even sell winter business began as an advertisement.

The "Millennium cold" originates from an old Poland scientists to Europe this winter climate projections.

According to him, the last two years, to the North Atlantic conveyor calorie reduced to original strength of the Gulf stream, so there will be the European year of the Millennium the coldest winter inside. There are also versions that is "La Niña" phenomenon, has led to a weakening of the North Atlantic-Gulf stream strength, thus enabling the European very cold this winter. These message transfer to the domestic, after deduction of the media, becomes China also to appear "Millennium the coldest of winter."

However, although it is not possible to exclude this winter is cold, but cold "Millennium" is not to rely on the spectrum.

The Poland scientists claimed "Gulf stream intensity is reduced to half", but it is the result of racking our brains.

The fact is that in recent decades of observation proved that the strength of the Gulf stream, although slightly weakened, but did not achieve the original (normal) "half". Moreover, if it drops to the level of the "half", it has also caused not just the "Millennium cold", I'm afraid the entire northern hemisphere is entering the ice age, the movie "the day after tomorrow," the emergence of the scene will, which is added a few pieces of cotton will be able to solve the problem?

Some media reports, the Gulf stream changes because of the "La Niña" phenomenon.

However, I have been exposed to scientific literature, it appears that no scientist would "La Niña" phenomenon and the Gulf stream changes. "La Niña" phenomena occur in the tropical Pacific "s scale" phenomenon. Although it can pass complex atmospheric effects of the global ocean processes in many areas, but did not study shows its strength to the Gulf stream. Then take into account both the role of time scales vary greatly, they are linked to seems a bit farfetched.

Domestic media did not mention Poland scientists what model to forecast temperatures this winter.

I am more familiar with Colombia University, International Institute for climate and society (IRI) seasonal climate forecasts, industry reputation quite well. The Institute on this winter air temperature forecast shows that most parts of the northern hemisphere winter (including Europe and China) will not appear in the so-called "Millennium very cold temperatures have" may be slightly higher than normal for the year. However, this kind of "temperature slightly higher absolute number of probability" is not big, so the "cooler" may still exist.

In fact, use the "Millennium" and "extreme" these words to talk about a few months after the weather condition itself is very much depend on the spectrum.

In accordance with the present climate forecast level, scientists can only talk about climate change trends and probably change interval. They can forecast a few months or a few years later, the average situation probably is, but a few months, what will happen after the specific weather conditions such as extreme cold, Super Storm, current climate models or powerlessness. Therefore, even if "Poland scientists" able to predict the overall than ever this winter to be cold, but the existing climate model capacity constraints or derive the coldest of the "Millennium" scientific conclusions — this also does not take into account the fact that the scientists of the past thousand years minimum temperature in the end is how many are not so clear.

p>It is also worth noting. Climate change is of great concern to the international community. If the original report was referred to the European face "Millennium the coldest winter of the conclusions of the real" stand up, that absolutely could be quite big science news. In accordance with past practice, such a message, like many authoritative foreign media would be rushing to do in-depth stories. But the reality is only a few unknown media news coverage of minority. This also reflects from the side of the "Millennium cold" this message cannot rely on the spectrum.

One does not rely on the spectrum of foreign news, through the development of the domestic media, several days slowly from European topic becomes the topic of China, domestic public concerns.

And the opposite should of is that many serious meteorological, climate knowledge is difficult to become a hot topic. It looks a bit sad, also be sufficient to Chinese science communicators to give up.

□ Poguy (United States of Earth and environmental science doctoral student)