China's "40%-45% carbon intensity reduction" is not difficult

Energy-saving emission reduction, first Beijing News weekly of the new knowledge

December 19, the Copenhagen Conference finally in a quarrel in closing.

Last of the Copenhagen agreement is not legally binding, nor meet the aspirations of all countries, can only be managed.

The focus of the quarrel is how to measure the emission reduction targets for each country concerned, who wants to have reduced less, others less.

The question is, how it is difficult to emission reduction. For example, a ton of CO2 emission reduction in China than in the United States much easier, but if you ask an average reduction of one ton of, China will be reduced by 20%, the United States is 5%, and into China.

So, how do you measure exactly which countries pay more? it depends BAU (Business AsUsual), "as usual" scenarios.

Ideal BAU refers, if climate change this thing does not exist, one will do. Any of the emission reduction targets, and the BAU Baseline 1 know how much more difficult.

In fact, the vast majority of emission reduction are not simply to climate change, there are many other benefits.

Such as improving energy efficiency can save money, coal to gas can reduce air pollution, and development of hybrid vehicles to reduce their dependence on foreign oil ... Many emission reduction measures in any case have to be done, not a BAU. So the international community on the method of calculating the BAU has been no consensus.

That year, China's GDP in 2000 by quadrupling the 1980, energy research institutions in respect of investigations prove that energy cannot be followed by the end of this period.

This let China from 1980 onwards it embarked on the "energy plus". If you draw a unit GDP energy consumption changes in the figure, the Chinese then this 20 years almost a straight line, the decline of decrease in energy intensity has been maintained at an average annual decline byseveral levels.

2000 years later, China's accession to the WTO, to become the world's factory, and real estate development, energy intensity drop down.

In fact, the energy intensity curve since 2000 after flattening, to 2005 even slightly upwards. This year, is the Chinese base year emissions reduction goals. China's energy reserves cannot afford to grow so quickly. Sure enough, energy-saving 20% being written into the "eleventh five-year plan, according to current projections, this objective must be achieved.

If every five years by more than 20% by 2020, China's energy consumption per unit GDP will decline from 2005, at least 50% of the emission reduction target of 45% can be completed.

Of course, the more energy is more difficult in the end. But the good news is that if the section does not, you can switch to renewable sources of energy. In this way, energy consumption, emissions are unchanged down. China aims by 2020 the share of renewable energy sources to 15%. With this growth, 45% of the target must be achieved.

Of course, the energy saving is very expensive.

According to one of the people's University, in order to complete the carbon intensity reduction 40%-45%, China takes 5000 billion RMB. I don't understand economics, I do not know the meaning behind the numbers, but I believe that this is a very worth the money. Energy consumption per unit of GDP in China is Japan's 7 times, United States of 6 times, India's 2.8 times! this long overdue change.

Therefore, China's first carbon intensity, in ensuring the economic development of energy-saving emission reduction and to rely on is logical things, there is no reason to blame.

While the EU negotiating position in Copenhagen, developing countries in the file to be on the basis of the BAU emissions reduction 15%-30%. This requires some degree of care to the economic development of developing countries, is a soft target. But, as mentioned earlier, BAU is not good, so China is replaced with the carbon intensity of the 40%-45% carbon intensity reduction is very clever.

The problem now is that the earth can not read BAU, deny carbon intensity, only recognize CO2 concentrations.

Once found alertness, concentration than is the real test of human moments. This meeting comes from the scientific community's warning that the human is increasingly approaching critical point.

□ Soil motorcycle (Beijing reporter)